A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal-hydraulics applications

摘要

In application to thermal-hydraulic calculations by system codes, sensitivity analysis plays an important role for managing the uncertainties of code output and risk analysis. Sensitivity analysis is also used to confirm the results of qualitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Several methodologies have been developed to address uncertainty importance assessment. Generally, uncertainty importance measures, mainly devised for the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications, are not affordable for computationally demanding calculations of the complex thermal-hydraulics (TH) system codes. In other words, for effective quantification of the degree of the contribution of each phenomenon to the total uncertainty of the output, a practical approach is needed by considering high computational burden of TH calculations. This study aims primarily to show the inefficiency of the existing approaches and then introduces a solution to cope with the challenges in this area by modification of variance-based uncertainty importance method. Important parameters are identified by the modified PIRT approach qualitatively then their uncertainty importance is quantified by a local derivative index. The proposed index is attractive from its practicality point of view on TH applications. It is capable of calculating the importance of parameters by a limited number of TH code executions. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on LOFT-LB1 test facility. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.