Hopfield networks for identification of delay differential equations with an application to dengue fever epidemics in Cuba1^

摘要

This work is aimed at proposing an algorithm, based upon Hopfield networks, for estimating the parameters of delay differential equations. This neural estimator has been successfully applied to models described by Ordinary Differential Equations, whereas its application to systems with delays is a novel contribution. As a case in point, we present a model of dengue fever for the Cuban case, which is defined by a delay differential system. This epidemiological model is built upon the scheme of an SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) population system, where both delays and time-varying parameters have been included. The latter are thus estimated by the proposed neural algorithm. Additionally, we obtain an expression of the Basic Reproduction Number for our model. Experimental results show the ability of the estimator to deal with systems with delays, providing plausible parameter estimations, which lead to predictions that are coherent with actual epidemiological data. Besides, when the Basic Reproduction Number is computed from the estimated parameter values, results suggest an evolution of the epidemic that is consistent with the observed infection. Hence the estimation could help health authorities to both predict the future trend of the epidemic and assess the efficiency of control measures.