The eradication endgame

摘要

In 1988, scientists around the world launched a massive effort to eliminate polio, a disease that can cripple and kill. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has since made great progress: the number of polio cases has fallen by more than 99%, from an estimated 350,000 cases in 1988 to around 400 in 2013. And in January, India, once a stronghold for polio, celebrated an important milestone: three years with no new cases. Yet poliovirus stubbornly persists in Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan, where violence, politics and mistrust have hampered eradication efforts. Indeed, in early 2014, Kabul saw its first case of polio since 2001. In 2012, the GPEI issued a dire warning: "Polio eradication is at a tipping point. If immunity is not raised in the three remaining countries to levels necessary to stop poliovirus transmission, polio eradication will fail."