The SIR political fanaticism figure voters model for estimating number of votes in Indonesian presidential elections

摘要

In this paper, the authors propose the SIR deterministic model of political fanaticism figure to understand the spread of voters in a population. The dynamics of the model involving ordinary differential equations of three class of voters; susceptible voters S, infected voters I, and recovered voters R. This model will be used to estimate the number of votes in 2014 Indonesian presidential elections. The study use a survey institution which conducted by Litbang KOMPAS during 2012–2014 for estimating the initial values of voters and parameters of the model. The results show that the higher the boredom rate, the lower number of infected voters. A higher rate of boredom can affect voters significantly to not choose a candidate for president.