THE SHAPE OF THINGS To COME: IDENTIFYING AND ASSESSING TRENDS AND DIRECTIONS IN AUDIO AND VIDEO RECORDING AND DATA-STORAGE SYSTEMS OVER THE PERIOD 2002 To 2007

摘要

There was a time, not all that long ago, when newly introduced recording systems, whatever their purpose, could be expected to have an effective commercial lifetime measured in decades. Open-reel audio tape for consumer and professional use, for example, was first introduced in 1947 (ignoring pre-war efforts in Germany), and was still an important product 25 years later. The venerable compact audio cassette, introduced by Philips in 1963, is even today, nearly 40 years later, still in fairly broad use. The VHS cassette, first offered for sale in 1977, is celebrating its 25th anniversary this year. Sales of these two very popular cassette formats have, in total, exceeded 150 billion units since their respective introductions, an admirable record. While both the compact audio cassette and the VHS video cassette are very mature products today, and demands for them decline each year, they remain useful and used, and can be expected still to be available for several years to come.