In a former life, I happened to be at the table soon after Ofsted took over the inspection of children's social care. Among other things, this translated into the design of the Joint Area Review inspection. Ofsted's leads saw this as the great opportunity it was - to design an inspection regime which would help ensure the safety of our children. We all agreed with that, so what went wrong? The first, and fundamental flaw was the idea that we can generate guarantees in an uncertain world. We simply cannot. Yes, of course, we can reduce risks and maximise prevention. But under the Pareto principle, we also know that the cost of every percentage reduction in risk rises exponentially.
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