The FinFET has enjoyed a good 10-year run, but the next process node will likely be its last. TSMC is sticking with these vertical-channel devices for its 3nm process, which it says is on schedule for volume production starting in 2H22. We expect Samsung will offer a 4nm optical shrink of its 5nm FinFET design rules in 4Q21, but it plans to abandon FinFETs for nanosheet gate-all-around (GAA) technology at 3nm.Because shrinking nanometer devices is increasingly difficult, the time between major process nodes is growing. TSMC began 5nm production in 2Q20, but its 3nm process won't reach volume production until late 2022, as Figure 1 shows. In the meantime, it plans to start pilot (risk) production in 3Q21 for its 4nm process, which reduces cost thanks to a 6% optical shrink of the foundry's 5nm design rules. Volume production for that process will likely begin around mid-2022.
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