The impact of divorce precedents on the Japanese divorce rate

摘要

This paper undertakes a time series analysis of the Japanese divorce rate using annual data over the period 1964-2006. One of the key innovations of the paper is to use court decisions on divorce disputes to construct an index that seeks to measure how the probability of success in a divorce suit has changed over time. The computed index suggests that if it is the culpable party lodging the divorce suit, the probability of the suit being successful has clearly increased over time. The probability of winning a divorce suit appears to be an important factor in explaining the long-run rise in the Japanese divorce rate. The divorce rate also appears to be counter-cyclical.