Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

摘要

Ultra high voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on "Zhejiang-Fuzhou" UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method in this paper. After the risk evaluation index system was built, the AHP was used to determine the weights of risk indicators, and the FCE method was to perform the risk evaluation. The evaluation result shows that (1) "Zhejiang-Fuzhou" UHV power transmission construction project has moderate risk, which indicates the occurrence probability of project risk is medium and the risk occurrence will cause general loss for project, (2) "society risk" has the highest level, and the next is "policy and law risk," "technique risk," "natural environmental risk," and "Management risk," respectively, and it should keep main eye on the social risk, policy and law risk, and technique risk. Finally, according to the risk evaluation result, the specific risk control recommendations were proposed for the smooth construction of this project.