Investigating Distribution of Capacity Based on Degradation Model

摘要

The breakdown phenomenon at freeway has both practical and theoretical interests. Many researchers have done great efforts on it. As a result, the stochastic concept for freeway capacity was defined and some approaches were developed. However, due to the fact that it is impossible to observe the value of the capacity, it is difficult to obtain the exact traffic capacity distribution. In this paper, traffic operational degradation concept was introduced and degradation model was developed to describe traffic breakdown process. A stochastic degradation parameter is introduced to explain the phenomena of traffic breakdown occurring at various flow rate levels. Traffic breakdown probability and traffic capacity distribution were derived theoretically. Based on the surveyed data, the experimental model was obtained by using the bootstrap method. The results indicate that Weibull distribution function can be used to describe traffic capacity stochastic nature.