A Novel Approach to Evaluate the Time-Variant System Reliability of Deteriorating Concrete Bridges

摘要

Bridge time-variant system reliability is a useful measure to evaluate the lifetime performance of deteriorating bridge structures under uncertainty and is an influential performance indicator in bridge maintenance management programs. This paper proposes a computational methodology based on the Monte Carlo simulations for evaluating the time-variant system reliability of concrete bridges under environmental attacks. Methods related to the reduction of concrete sections and the variation of the load effects acting on the components are investigated using a finite element-based computational program, CBDAS (Concrete Bridge Durability Analysis System), to perform the assessment of lifetime structural performance. With regard to system reliability, a practical technique for searching the structural failure mode is also presented and a program, SRMCS (System Reliability by Monte Carlo Simulations), based on the Monte Carlo simulations is written to calculate and evaluate the structural system reliability of deteriorating concrete bridges. Finally, three numerical examples are presented to display the CBDAS and SRMCS functions.