Stochastic Simulation on System Reliability and Component Probabilistic Importance of Road Network

摘要

Because of the combination explosion problem, it is difficult to use probability analytical method to calculate the system reliability of large networks. The paper develops a stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo-based) method to study the system reliability and component probabilistic importance of the road network. The proposed method considers the characteristics of the practical road network as follows: both link (roadway segment) and node (intersection) components are emphasized in the road network; the reliability for a link or node component may be at the in-between state; namely, its reliability value is between 0 and 1. The method is then implemented using the object-oriented programming language C++ and integrated into a RARN-MGG (reliability analysis of road network using Monte Carlo, GIS, and grid) system. Finally, two numerical examples based on a simple road network and a large real road network, respectively, are carried out to characterize the feasibility and to demonstrate the strength of the stochastic simulation method.