Computer-Aided Analysis of Flow in Water Pipe Networks after a Seismic Event

摘要

This paper proposes a framework for a reliability-based flow analysis for a water pipe network after an earthquake. For the first part of the framework, we propose to use a modeling procedure for multiple leaks and breaks in the water pipe segments of a network that has been damaged by an earthquake. For the second part, we propose an efficient system-level probabilistic flow analysis process that integrates the matrix-based system reliability (MSR) formulation and the branch-and-bound method. This process probabilistically predicts flow quantities by considering system-level damage scenarios consisting of combinations of leaks and breaks in network pipes and significantly reduces the computational cost by sequentially prioritizing the system states according to their likelihoods and by using the branch-and-bound method to select their partial sets. The proposed framework is illustrated and demonstrated by examining two example water pipe networks that have been subjected to a seismic event. These two examples consist of 11 and 20 pipe segments, respectively, and are computationally modeled considering their available topological, material, and mechanical properties. Considering different earthquake scenarios and the resulting multiple leaks and breaks in the water pipe segments, the water flows in the segments are estimated in a computationally efficient manner.