Risk Propagation of Delayed Payment in Stakeholder Network of Large Hydropower Project Construction considering Risk Resistance and Mitigation

摘要

Large hydropower project involves numerous stakeholders in the construction phase. The risk of delayed payment may escalate into an event of catastrophic economic loss through complex stakeholders' relationships. This paper builds a complex stakeholder network by collecting all contract prices in large hydropower project construction (LHPC) and proposes a novel mathematical model based on Cellular Automata Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (CA-SIS) framework to analyze the risk propagation of delayed payment (RPDP). In the model, to approximate actual loss diffusion, risk-resisting and risk-mitigating abilities of stakeholders are combined, and relevance between risk mitigation and time is taken into account. The rationality and feasibility of the novel model are illustrated through its application to an actual LHPC. The simulation results include the following: RPDP presents three phases: risk first slightly propagates, risk then exponentially breaks out, and at last propagation consequence will reach a stable state related to stakeholders' risk-resisting ability closely; in respect of stakeholders' risk-mitigating ability and property of the network, RPDP range decreases with the increase of number of partners and homogeneity of contract price distribution; in respect of stakeholders' risk-resisting ability, RPDP range decreases with the decrease of number of partners. This research can serve as a powerful complement to analyze and control the delayed payment in LHPC.