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The Role of Targeted Communication and Contagion in Product Adoption

机译:定向传播和传染在产品采用中的作用

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The two main influences leading to adoption at the individual consumer level are marketing communication and interpersonal communication. Although evidence of the effect of these two influences is abundant at the market level, there is a paucity of research documenting the simultaneous effect of both influences at the individual consumer level. Thus, the primary objective of this paper is to fill the gap in the literature by documenting the existence and magnitude of both influences at the individual customer level while controlling for unobserved temporal effects. nnThe pharmaceutical industry provides an appropriate context to study this problem. It has been conjectured that adoption and usage patterns of a new drug by physicians—"contagion"—acts as a "consumption externality," as it allows a given physician to learn about the efficacy and use of the drug. In addition, pharmaceutical companies target individual physicians via marketing activities such as detailing, sampling, and direct-to-consumer advertising. Our data contain the launch of a new drug from an important drug category. We chose two unrelated markets (Manhattan and Indianapolis) for our empirical analysis. We model an individual physician's decision to adopt a new drug in a given time period as a binary choice decision. This decision is modeled as a function of temporal trends (linear and quadratic) and individual physician-level contagion and marketing activity (both individual level and market level). Our contagion measure aggregates the adoption behavior of geographically near physicians for each physician in our sample. nnOur results from the Manhattan market indicate that both targeted communication and contagion have an effect on the individual physician's adoption decision. A major challenge is to rule out alternative explanations for the detected contagion effect. We therefore carry out a series of tests and show that this effect persists even after we control for the effects of time, individual salespeople, other marketing instruments, local market effects, and the effects of some institutional factors. We believe that our contagion effect arises because the consumption externality is stronger for geographically close physicians. We discuss some underlying processes that are probably giving rise to the contagion effect we detected. nnFinally, we compute the social multiplier of marketing and find it to be about 11%. We also use the estimated parameters to compare the relative effect of contagion and targeted marketing. We find that marketing plays a large (relative) role in affecting early adoption. However, the role of contagion dominates from month 4 onward and, by month 17 (or about half the duration of our data), asymptotes to about 90% of the effect.
机译:导致在个人消费者级别采用的两个主要影响是营销传播和人际传播。尽管在市场级别上这两种影响的影响的证据很多,但是很少有研究记录这两种影响在个人消费者层面上的同时影响。因此,本文的主要目的是通过记录两种影响在单个客户级别上的存在和严重程度,同时控制未观察到的时间影响来填补文献中的空白。 nn制药行业提供了研究此问题的适当背景。据推测,医师对新药的采用和使用方式-“传染”-充当“消费外在性”,因为它允许特定的医师了解该药物的功效和用途。此外,制药公司还通过营销活动(例如详细信息,抽样和直接面向消费者的广告)将个人医生作为目标。我们的数据包含来自重要药物类别的新药的发布。我们选择了两个不相关的市场(曼哈顿和印第安纳波利斯)进行实证分析。我们将单个医生在给定时间段内采用新药的决定建模为二元选择决定。该决策根据时间趋势(线性和二次方)和个人医师级别的传染和营销活动(个人级别和市场级别)而建模。我们的传染性指标汇总了样本中每个医师在地理位置上接近医师的采用行为。 nn我们从曼哈顿市场获得的结果表明,有针对性的交流和传染都对个别医师的收养决定产生影响。一个主要的挑战是排除检测到的传染效应的替代解释。因此,我们进行了一系列测试,结果表明,即使我们控制了时间,个人销售人员,其他营销手段,本地市场影响以及某些制度因素的影响,这种影响仍然存在。我们认为,传染性效应之所以产生是因为对于地缘关系密切的医生而言,消费外部性更强。我们讨论了可能导致我们检测到的传染效应的一些潜在过程。 nn最后,我们计算出营销的社会乘数,发现它约为11%。我们还使用估计的参数来比较传染和有针对性的营销的相对影响。我们发现,营销在影响早期采用方面起着很大(相对)的作用。但是,传染的作用从第4个月开始占主导地位,到第17个月(或数据持续时间的一半左右),渐近逐渐消失,达到影响的90%。

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