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Two Centuries of Innovations and Stock Market Bubbles

机译:两个世纪的创新与股市泡沫

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The interplay between innovation and the stock market has been extensively studied by scholars across all business disciplines. However, one phenomenon remains understudied: the association between innovation and stock market bubbles. Bubbles-defined as rapid increases and subsequent declines in stock prices-have been primarily examined by economists who generally do not focus on individual characteristics of innovations or on the consequences of bubbles for their parent firms. We set out to fill this gap in our paper. Using a sample of 51 major innovations introduced between 1825 and 2000, we test for bubbles in the stock prices of parent firms subsequent to the commercialization of these innovations. We identify bubbles in 73% of the cases. The magnitude of these bubbles increases with the radicalness of innovations, with their potential to generate indirect network effects, and with their public visibility at the time of commercialization. Moreover, we find that parent firms typically raise new equity capital during bubble periods and that the amount of equity raised is proportional to the magnitude of the bubble. Finally, we show that the buy-and-hold abnormal returns of parent firms are significantly positive between the beginning and the end of the bubble, suggesting that these innovations add value to their firm and to the economy, in spite of the bubble. Our findings have important implications for managers interested in commercializing innovations and for policy makers concerned with the stability of the financial system.
机译:所有商业学科的学者都广泛研究了创新与股票市场之间的相互作用。但是,仍然没有研究一种现象:创新与股市泡沫之间的关联。泡沫被定义为股价的快速上升和随后的下跌,经济学家对此进行了主要研究,他们通常不关注创新的个体特征或泡沫对母公司的影响。我们着手填补本文中的空白。我们使用1825年至2000年之间引入的51种重大创新的样本,测试了这些创新商品化后母公司股价的泡沫。我们在73%的案例中发现了气泡。随着创新的激进,产生间接网络效应的潜力以及在商业化时公众的知名度,这些泡沫的规模会越来越大。此外,我们发现母公司通常在泡沫时期筹集新的股权资本,并且募集的股权数量与泡沫的规模成正比。最后,我们表明,在泡沫开始和结束之间,母公司的购买和持有异常收益显着为正,表明尽管存在泡沫,这些创新仍为其公司和经济增加了价值。我们的发现对有兴趣将创新商业化的管理人员以及与金融体系稳定有关的决策者都具有重要意义。

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