Economic base model for the Guadiana estuary, Portugal an application for Integrated Coastal Zone Management

摘要

The concept of base-multiplier analysis is that export activities constitute the economic base of a region, whereas the other economic activities that sell their goods and services to the local residents grow or shrink depending on the performance of the base activities. These concepts, with origins extending at least as far back as the early 1900s, have reached maturity and are widely applied. The attractiveness of an economic base model (EBM) draws in its simplicity in expressing the power of demand in regional income determination. Extensive literature has grown up around the economic base theory, however, systematic publications concerning empirical application are scarce and focus mostly on the socio-economic dimension of the analyzed system. Such territorially oriented economic models are useful in a variety of decision making procedures; preparation of annual budgets, short-run market demand forecasting, longer-term growth strategies. The purpose of this article is to present a practical application of EBM to the geographical area of the Guadiana Estuary, on the south coast of Portugal. The interest of the EBM application in this case study includes its integration in a broader project that applies a Systems Approach Framework (SAF) towards Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). There are three pillars of sustainability considered here: social, ecological and economic, hence, the article not only describes EBM application but also how it has been use to demonstrate a chain of events resulting from the interaction between the ecological and the socio-economic sub systems of the area. The results obtained will probably raise the usual criticism to which the economic base model has been exposed previously; however it provides unequivocal evidence that a truly interdisciplinary approach to a given territorial target can be successfully shared with end users and the research community.