Study of Risk Evaluation System of High Arch Dam Based on Failure Mechanism

摘要

In view of the randomness in terms of high arch dam load, resistance and failure calamity loss as well as the fuzziness in terms of evaluation conclusion, a high arch dam risk evaluation system is established by means of risk analysis method. Natural factors, structural factors and human factors that lead to high arch dam failure are summed up on the basis of statistics. Through qualitative analysis coupled with quantitative estimation, it is determined that high arch dams generally involve five major failure modes: abutment rock mass destabilization, excess cracking, arch dam & dam foundation entire destabilization, extreme dam-overflow and destabilization of dam body along base plane. The state functions of individual major failure modes are established. An approach is made to the correlativity among the major failure modes and among the random variables within individual failure modes, and it is suggested that risk rate, economic loss risk value and life loss risk value should be used to assess the risk of high arch dams. A certain high arch dam abutment instability risk evaluation has been provided.