Sensitivity of Orbit Predictions to Density Variability

摘要

This paper summarizes the first stage in a research effort designed to obtain a quantitative knowledge and deepernunderstanding of how prediction error depends on density variability. Initial numerical simulations are performednto obtain a detailed understanding of the theoretical effects of density variations on satellite orbit predictions. Thenlevel of knowledge of density variations needed for various orbit prediction requirements is quantified, and resultsnare compiled focusing on the effects of various horizontal wavelengths in the atmosphere. The information obtainednin this analysis lays the foundation for the next step of connecting the simulation results to the prediction of actualnsatellite ephemerides.