An assurance process for the exchange of operations research software models used for military simulation

摘要

Modelling and Simulation (M&S) have become an integral part of the evidence-based approach to decision making used by Defence departments around the world. A key part of M&S is the use of computer-based software that allows study of conflict and warfare. In order to assure confidence in the output, the Defence decision maker expects that any model or simulation is 'fit-for-purpose' and that appropriate Verification and Validation (V&V) have been conducted. We examine how best to exchange with confidence software models constructed to support military-Operations Research (OR) studies within the context of a pragmatic OR approach that recognises the difficulties inherent in validating epistemological models of warfare that are incomplete or can only be approximately correct. The problem lies in justifying, in a rigorous and structured way, a model as being fit-for-purpose. The lessons from a specific case study lead us to propose that the OR and M&S communities adopt a standardised approach to the V&V of military-OR models. We suggest that a level of assurance in models exchanged or co-developed internationally could be readily achieved by adopting the current UK guidelines, although with some modifications, along with the acceptance of a definition for fitness-for-purpose cast in the context of OR studies.