Predictive modelling of telehealth system deployment

摘要

Healthcare systems are facing intense challenges to maintain and reinforce their value, such as cost efficiency, quality of care, accessibility and safety. Telehealth is seen as a possible way to address these challenges. Recent studies have focused on telehealth organization, resources and operations management. However, very few studies have focused on predicting the impacts of telehealth integration in the current healthcare system. We propose a parametric simulation model that fills this gap in the literature. The model considers environmental factors (demographic changes, resources and economic context) affecting the healthcare system and predicts implications over a long time horizon. A scenario-based approach is used to investigate several research questions and possible developments. A case study of the Picardie region illustrates this approach by modelling current conditions over a 20-year period. We believe this approach can be used as a strong decision support tool in the deployment of telehealth systems in the future.