Socio-demographic and experience factors affecting drivers' runoff risk along horizontal curves of two-lane rural highway

摘要

Introduction: An improper driving strategy is one of the causative factors for a high probability of runoff and overturning crashes along the horizontal curves of two-lane highways. The socio-demographic and driving experience factors of a driver do influence driving strategy. Hence, this paper explored the effect of these factors on the driver's runoff risk along the horizontal curves. Method: The driving performance data of 48 drivers along 52 horizontal curves was recorded in a fixed-base driving simulator. The driving performance index was estimated from the weighted lateral acceleration profile of each driver along a horizontal curve. It was clustered and compared with the actual runoff events observed during the experiment. It yielded high, moderate, and low-risk clusters. Using cross-tabulation, each risk cluster was compared with the socio-demographic and experience factors. Further, generalized mixed logistic regression models were developed to predict the high-risk and high to moderate risk events. Results: The age and experience of drivers are the influencing factors for runoff crash. The high-risk event percentage for mid-age drivers decreases with an increase in driving experience. For younger drivers, it increases initially but decreases afterwards. The generalized mixed logistic regression models identified young drivers with mid and high experience and mid-age drivers with low-experience as the high-risk groups. Conclusions: The proposed index parameter is effective in identifying the risk associated with horizontal curves. Driver training program focusing on the horizontal curve negotiation skills and graduated driver licensing could help the high-risk groups. Practical applications: The proposed index parameter can evaluate driving behavior at the horizontal curves. Driving behavior of high-risk groups could be considered in highway geometric design. Motor-vehicle agencies, advanced driver assistance systems manufacturers, and insurance agencies can use proposed index parameter to identify the high-risk drivers for their perusal. (C) 2019 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.