Smoothing mortality data: the English Life Tables, 2010-2012

摘要

We describe the most recent statistical methodology used to produce the 17th English Life Table, covering the period 2010-2012. Crude mortality rates are smoothed, or graduated, by using a combination of a generalized additive model and low dimensional parametric models. The approach to graduation acknowledges uncertainty, particularly in the highest age groups, by model averaging, using a simplified version of a full Bayesian analysis.