Thoughts on whether government should steer a tropical cyclone if it could

摘要

Previous work suggests if it were possible to lower sea-surface temperature using wind-wave pumps, it would sometime make sense to try to reduce the wind speed of a tropical cyclone (TC) that is likely to make landfall. While currently there is no plausible strategy to steer a TC, suppose that TC landfall location could be altered and subsequent damages perhaps reduced. Here, we ask whether and when such a modification might be desirable. As a thought experiment, we consider a hypothetical TC that will make landfall on the east coast of Florida. Using results from previous detailed damage modeling, we examine three simplified scenarios of TC modification resulting in altered landfall location. Even in these simplified scenarios, and assuming a zero cost for modification, we find that unless it becomes possible to steer a hurricane to the open ocean with something approaching certainty, it is likely that the complexities of the decision will always make it undesirable to undertake a modification intended to steer TCs.