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Fukushima: probing the analytical and epistemological limits of risk analysis

机译:福岛:探讨风险分析的分析和认识论极限

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The Fukushima catastrophe tragically epitomizes the limitations of dealing with natural and technical hazards. Remarkably yet, authorities' review of the catastrophe continue to be limited to mistakes and responsibilities of practical risk management. Although state regulations are questioned, technical protection measures verified, and disaster management processes optimized, no deeper discussion about the actual analytical limits of risk analysis has been engaged thus far. What can risk analyses address and what remains beyond their scope? How trustworthy can risk analyses be, and what kind of statements about the future can they actually formulate? This article examines these broader analytical and epistemological boundaries of risk analysis. Drawing on cases of international nuclear risk management, it tests and problematizes how the definition of risk, the methodology of their registration, and the interpretation of results are reaching their limitations in contemporary risk analysis. Following this critical discussion of risk analysis, the article draws conclusions concerning the usefulness and necessity of a differentiated and informed discourse on the potential and the limitations of the risk analysis method, an approach which today enjoys increasing popularity in a variety of policy sectors ranging from critical infrastructure protection to national and international security.
机译:福岛大灾难悲惨地概括了应对自然和技术危害的局限性。值得注意的是,当局对灾难的审查仍然仅限于实际风险管理的错误和责任。尽管对国家法规提出了质疑,并验证了技术保护措施,并优化了灾难管理流程,但到目前为止,尚未对风险分析的实际分析极限进行更深入的讨论。风险分析可以解决哪些问题,而超出其范围的还有哪些?风险分析的可信度如何,以及它们实际上可以制定什么样的关于未来的陈述?本文研究了风险分析的这些更广泛的分析和认识论边界。它利用国际核风险管理的案例,对风险的定义,其注册的方法以及结果的解释如何达到现代风险分析中的局限性进行了测试,并对其提出了质疑。在对风险分析进行了严格的讨论之后,本文得出了结论,涉及关于风险分析方法的潜力和局限性的差异化和知情的论述的有用性和必要性,该方法在当今的各种政策领域中越来越受欢迎。对国家和国际安全的关键基础设施保护。

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