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What accounts for China's trade balance dynamics?

机译:是什么导致了中国的贸易平衡动态?

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This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldos [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldos, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213-239] and Prasad [Prasad, E. S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588-606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985-2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade 'imbalance'.
机译:本文提出了一种结构化的VAR模型,该模型扩展了Hoffmaister和Roldos的框架[Hoffmaister,A. W.,&Roldos,J. E.(2001)。发展中国家宏观经济波动的根源:巴西和韩国。宏观经济学杂志,23,213-239]和Prasad [Prasad,E. S.(1999)。国际贸易和商业周期。经济杂志,109,588-606]。然后,该模型用于分析1985-2000年中国贸易差额波动的来源。努力将长期存在于贸易平衡趋势中的力量与具有短暂影响的力量区分开来。研究了四种类型的冲击的影响-外国供应冲击,国内供应冲击,相对需求冲击和名义冲击。在其他发现中,有两个显得很重要。首先,中国贸易平衡的变动很大程度上是真正冲击的结果。其次,人民币被低估了,但是汇率的变化对贸易差额的影响很小。因此,货币措施不足以纠正中国的贸易“失衡”。

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