Evaluation by Markov chain models of a non-randomised breast cancer screening programme in women aged under 50 years in Sweden

摘要

Conclusions-The screening in the Upp- sala programme is likely to have a similar effect to that observed in the Two-County Trial. It is feasible to evaluate non- randomised service screening pro- grammes using Markov chain models. Study objective-To apply Markov chain Models that have previously been used on Data in randomised trials of breast cancer Screening to data from an uncontrolled Service screening programme; to compare Results with those from a randomised Trial. Design-A service screening programme In Uppsala county, Sweden, inviting 25 660 Women aged 39-49 to mammographic Screening every 20 months, and the Swed- ish Two-County Trial inviting 19 844 women aged 40-49 to two yearly screening, compared with 15 604 women of the same age in an unscreened control group. Data were analysed using Markov chain models and quasi-likelihood estimation proce- dures.