MODELING MICROBIAL LEVELS USING PRECIPITATION DATA AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

摘要

This paper presents models for estimating fecal coliform concentrations in the Bogue Falaya and Tchefuncte Rivers as a function of basin average precipitation. Fecal coliform data from the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals were available for a period of 15 years (1975 through 1991). Precipitation data from the Louisiana Climate Center at Louisiana State University were available for 49 years (1943 through 1991). The climate of the area is characterized by different precipitation/runoff mechanisms for the summer and winter seasons. This seasonal effect has been successfully applied in modeling fecal coliform in the Tchefuncte River as a funciton of discharge (Barbe and Francis, 1995). Even though a seasonal effect was found for the Techefuncte River, no seasonal effect was evident for the Bogue Falaya River. A reason for this difference is discussed. Statistical analysis entailed regression analysis to determine the relationship between precipitation and fecal coliform concentration and testing for seasonal differences in fecal coliform concentrations.