Estimation of plant protection product application dates for environmental fate modeling based on phenological stages of crops

摘要

According to the EU directive 91/414/EEC potential environmental concentrations of pesticides have to be assessed with environmental fate models. For the calculation of pesticide concentrations it is necessary to provide an application date which has to match the specific Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundesamt, Chemische Industrie (BBCH) stage at which the pesticide shall be applied. If these application dates are not available for a specific stage, crop and country they must be estimated, which adds an additional uncertainty to the predicted concentrations. In the present study, we therefore evaluate to which extent application dates can be derived from phenological data. For this analysis phenological data, converted to BBCH stages, of two field crops provided by the German Weather Service (DWD) were analyzed. We found a linear correlation between BBCH stages and the respective appearance dates, which can be used for interpolation of appearance dates of specific BBCH stages. Remarkably, when comparing BBCH stages from Germany and the Czech Republic almost identical correlations of appearance dates and BBCH stages were found. In the next step, soil and climate data from Joint Research Centre (JRC) were analyzed together with phenological data in order to evaluate if BBCH stages can be estimated for countries with other climate or soil conditions. This analysis revealed that temperature, global radiation and evaporation were the parameters with the strongest impact. These parameters were used for estimating appearance dates of BBCH stages for other countries. Exemplarily, appearance dates for maize BBCH were calculated for Italy. Estimated and observed appearance dates showed a high concordance (on average six days difference). Finally, the political of impact a variation of a few days on calculated pesticide concentration was analyzed. Exemplarily, the pesticide fate model FOCUS PEARL was used to estimate pesticide groundwater concentrations. When calculating concentrations for application dates varying by ± two weeks, concentrations in groundwater usually varied very little. The highest variation was found for application at BBCH 30 in maize (6.6 % variation over all scenarios). These results showed that the uncertainty included in the estimation of appearance dates of BBCH stages for other countries has a relatively small effect on the results of PEARL and consequentially on the decision of the pesticide risk assessment by changing only the application date.