A SEMI-EMPIRICAL MODEL FOR THE NEAR FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE KOROMA LANDSCAPE

摘要

Modelling tools are often used to simulate and predict land use changes. Especially for areas of a great environmental importance, and apart from the necessary soft and hard technical perfection, modelling tools must additionally exhibit strong analytical power to elaborate the causes and the consequences of land use changes. Recently the hydrological deterioration of the protected Koronia lake, northern Greece, is followed by landscape degradation. The research presents the simulation, in a short term base, of the land use/cover changes of the landscape of the Kolchicos river that discharges into the Koronia lake. Simulations were performed with the use of CLUE-S semi-empirical model. The modelling effort included a land use/cover change scenario (1993-2013), by linearly extrapolating past changes (1945-1993) of land use/cover. Simulation showed that all major land use/cover types would be increased from 1993 to 2013, especially in the expense of grasslands that arc tending to extinction. Developmental planning and policy making must take seriously under consideration the predictions of grassland elimination and the decrease of the area of open shrublands in the future landscape, given that the ecosystems they support are important for sustaining the ecological integrity and the social reference of the landscape.