Bayesian Methods for Analysing Climate Change and Water Resource Uncertainties

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to outline the advantages of the Bayesian approach for analysing uncertainties involving climate change, emphasizing the study of the risks such changes pose to water resources systems. Bayesian analysis has the advantage of basing inference and decisions on a coherent and normatively appealing theoretical framework. Furthermore, it can incorporate diverse sources of information, including subjective opinions, historical observations and model outputs. The paper summarizes the basic assumptions and procedures of Bayesian analysis. Summaries of applications to detection of climate change, estimation of climate model parameters, and wetlands management under climatic uncertainty illustrate the potential of the Bayesian methodology.