Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to Represent Climate Change Uncertainties

摘要

When the prospect of climate change is admitted into the design and operation of long-lifetime water resource projects then the already high level of uncertainty is further increased. Currently, the longer-term climate is discussed in terms of a set of climate change scenarios. As a result of severe weakness in the knowledge and data pertaining to climate change, the relative probabilities of these scenarios are rarely indicated. This predominantly possibility rather than probabilistic view of climate change falls short of the needs of the established approaches to quantitative resource management.