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The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change

机译:人口转变:基本变革的三个世纪

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摘要

Before the start of the demographic transition, life was short, births were many, growth was slow and the population was young. During the transition, first mortality and then fertility declined, causing population growth rates first to accelerate and then to slow again, moving toward low fertility, long life and an old population. The transition began around 1800 with declining mortality in Europe. It has now spread to all parts of the world and is projected to be completed by 2100. This global demographic transition has brought momentous changes, reshaping the economic and demographic life cycles of individuals and restructuring populations. Since 1800, global population size has already increased by a factor of six and by 2100 will have risen by a factor of ten. There will then be 50 times as many elderly, but only five times as many children; thus, the ratio of elders to children will have risen by a factor of ten. The length of life, which has already more than doubled, will have tripled, while births per woman will have dropped from six to two. In 1800, women spent about 70 percent of their adult years bearing and rearing young children, but that fraction has decreased in many parts of the world to only about 14 percent, due to lower fertility and longer life. These changes are sketched in Table 1.
机译:在人口转变开始之前,寿命短,出生多,生长缓慢且人口年轻。在过渡期间,死亡率先下降,然后生育率下降,导致人口增长率先加速然后再减慢,向低生育率,长寿和人口老龄化发展。转型始于1800年,欧洲的死亡率不断下降。现在,它已经传播到世界各地,并计划在2100年之前完成。这一全球人口转变带来了重大变化,重塑了个体的经济和人口生命周期,改变了人口结构。自1800年以来,全球人口规模已经增长了六倍,到2100年将增长十倍。这样一来,老年人的数量将是原来的50倍,而儿童则只有原来的5倍。因此,老年人与儿童的比例将增加十倍。寿命已经增加了一倍以上,将增加三倍,而每名妇女的出生人数将从六岁降至二岁。 1800年,妇女在成年后花费了大约70%的时间抚养和抚养年幼的孩子,但由于生育力降低和寿命延长,这一比例在世界许多地方已降至仅约14%。表1概述了这些更改。

著录项

  • 来源
    《The journal of economic perspectives》 |2003年第4期|p.167-190|共24页
  • 作者

    Ronald Lee;

  • 作者单位

    Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 各科经济学;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 23:25:59

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