Food Security and Sociopolitical Stability

摘要

The 2007 increase in grain prices-unprecedented for a generation-caught many economists off-guard. Several years on from that crisis, economists are rightly reflecting on the consequences of it. As implied by one chapter author in this book, Peter Timmer, markets overreacted to initial information, as did many governments and donor agencies, fueled by both consumer riots, as well as initial projections of the average welfare loss for poor consumers, based only on budget shares to food. The riots were real, though as argued in this volume, they were a reflection of employment prospects as much as food prices; the expected distributional consequences proved less tangible. After accounting for producer gains, wages flexibility, general equilibrium effects, and a range of judicious as well as less wise government actions, the average impact of the spikes apparent in prices quoted in global trade often varied appreciably from initial concerns, although clearly some households were vulnerable.