A Stochastic Model Simulating the Feeding-Health-Production Complex in a Dairy Herd

摘要

A dynamic, stochastic, and mechanistic Monte Carlo model, simulating a dairy herd with focus on the feed- ing-health-production complex is presented. By speci- fying biological parameters at cow level and a manage- ment strategy at herd level, the model can simulate the technical and economic consequences of scenarios at herd level. The representation of the feeding-health- production complex is aimed to be sufficiently detailed, to include relationships likely to cause significant herd effects, and to be sufficiently simple to enable a feasible parameterization of the model and interpretation of the results from the model. Consequently, diseases are defined as four disease types: two metabolic disease types, an udder disease type, and a reproductive disease type. Risk factors for the diseases were defined as par- ity, yield capacity, disease recurrence, disease interre- lationships, lactation stage, and season. Direct effects of the diseases were defined according to milk yield, feed intake, feed utilization, conception, culling, involuntary removal, and death. Scenarios differing in base risks of milk fever and ketosis, heat detection rate, and culling strategy were simulated for describing the model behavior. Annual milk yield per cow was decreased by increased risk of ketosis and by increased risk of milk fever, even though no direct effect of milk fever on milk yield was modeled at the cow level. The indirect effect from milk fever is a consequence of increased replacement rate (relatively lower milk yield from younger cows). By ignoring the history of milk fever in insemination and replacement decisions, a significantly reduced net income per cow was found in some herds. We concluded that important benefits from using such a herd model are the capability of accounting for herd management factors and the ad- vantage of avoiding to double count the indirect effects from disease, such as increased risk of other diseases, poorer reproduction results, and increased risk of cull- ing and death.