The Predictive Role of History in Threat Assessment: A Case Study: The 1916 Attack on 'Black Tom Island' and the American Homeland

摘要

The attacks of September 11, 2001 were not the first such attacks on the American Homeland. Nor were they the first attacks within the New York Metropolitan region. The 9/11 Commission Report concluded in 2004 that, "We believe the 9/11 attacks revealed four kinds of failures; in imagination, policy, capabilities, and management". In risk analysis and threat assessment, imagination and an understanding of relevant history are prerequisite to the successful protection of lives and critical infrastructure. Consequently, it is clear that the lessons of history had been taught but not learned.