Synthetic storms reconstruction for coastal floods risks assessment

摘要

Coastal surge floods are extreme phenomena with low frequency of occurrence. In this paper, a combination of two approaches based on the stochastic model for multivariate extremes and the synthetic storm model was applied for coastal floods reconstruction in St. Petersburg. The stochastic model is based on multivariate distributions of cyclone' parameters with the use of an equal probability contours method. The synthetic storm model was developed taking into account probability distributions of