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A real options valuation of Chinese wind energy technologies for power generation: do benefits from the feed-in tariffs outweigh costs?

机译:中国风能发电技术的实物期权评估:上网电价的收益是否超过成本?

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In order to assess the viability of wind energy projects in China, this paper takes a real options approach by accounting for flexibility over deployment of the technology in response to a stochastic non-renewable energy cost. The difference between the latter and the R&D-enhanced cost of renewable energy operation may be thought of as a benefit from using wind. On the other hand, the Chinese government provides feed-in tariffs to encourage further adoption of wind, which should be included as a cost. This work, thus, shows that there is substantial options value to China's wind energy program, which is bolstered if the cost of carbon dioxide emissions is internalized. Moreover, by varying the rate of feed-in tariffs, the model may be used to show plausible ranges for the feed-in tariffs, which could be a useful policy insight. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that with the likelihood of renewable energy to replace non-renewable energy, wind power in China can potentially reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 6.4% by 2020 comparing to the 2005 level and highlights the significant role of wind power in China's emission targets and energy security. This is a relevant paper, especially given the importance of a sustainable energy transition for China. More generally, using the real options approach from a policy perspective could provide insights about the viability of renewable energy programs and robustness of feed-in tariffs rates. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:为了评估中国风能项目的可行性,本文采用了一种实物期权方法,考虑了该技术在应对随机不可再生能源成本方面的灵活性。后者与可再生能源运营的R&D增强成本之间的差异可被视为使用风能的收益。另一方面,中国政府提供上网电价,以鼓励进一步采用风能,这应作为费用包括在内。因此,这项工作表明,中国的风能计划具有巨大的选择价值,如果将二氧化碳的排放成本内部化,这一选择将得到支持。此外,通过改变上网电价的费率,可以使用该模型显示上网电价的合理范围,这可能是有用的政策见解。此外,该研究假设,利用可再生能源替代不可再生能源的可能性,到2020年,中国的风电可以将二氧化碳排放量与2005年的水平相比减少约6.4%,并强调了风电在中国排放中的重要作用目标和能源安全。这是一篇相关的论文,特别是考虑到可持续能源转型对中国的重要性。更一般而言,从政策角度使用实物期权方法可以提供有关可再生能源计划可行性和上网电价税率稳健性的见解。 (C)2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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