Testing Social Ties against Merits: the Political Career of Provincial Party Chiefs in China, 1990-2007

摘要

The literature of Chinese politics focuses on two determinants in selecting government officials-merits and social ties. On the one hand, local officials who produce higher economic growth are more likely to be promoted. On the other hand, local officials who have social ties with top Party leaders are more likely to become candidates of future leaders. Sincel990 two major factions have dominated in the Chinese politics. Strong tie with one faction might be perceived as a threat to the rival faction. My empirical analysis will examine what determined the promotion outcomes of provincial Party chiefs from 1990 to 2007. Five indicators of social ties are used in the Cox event history analysis: ties built through family, college, birthplace, workplace, or mishu. In the analysis the factionalist argument holds better than the meritocratic argument. But the story of social ties is complex because different social ties have different effects on promotion outcomes.