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China's Leadership Transition and the Future of US-China Relations: Insights from the Spratly Islands Case

机译:中国的领导权过渡与美中关系的未来:南沙群岛案的启示

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The turnover of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership at the 18th Party Congress provides an opportune time to examine the future of US-China relations. Characterized by a blend of competition and cooperation, this relationship generally has been stable. The South China Sea (SCS) dispute, however, has the potential to fracture the relationship partly because of China's conflict with the Philippines, a close American ally, over the Spratly/Nansha Islands. A study of the Spratly/ Nansha Islands dispute provides one way to weigh the prospective impact of China's leadership transition on China-Philippines-US relations and thus China-US relations. This article contends China's leadership transition exacerbates the dispute and creates problems for China-Philippines and China-US relations, but that domestic and international interests will drive China and the US to contain the risk of serious conflict.
机译:中共十八大领导班子的更替为研究美中关系的未来提供了时机。这种关系的特点是竞争与合作融为一体,一直稳定。然而,南中国海(SCS)争端有可能破坏两国关系,部分原因是中国与南沙群岛上的美国亲密盟友菲律宾发生冲突。对南沙群岛/南沙群岛争端的研究提供了一种方法,可以权衡中国领导层过渡对中菲美关系以及中美关系的潜在影响。本文认为,中国领导人的换届加剧了争端,给中菲关系和中美关系带来了问题,但国内外利益将驱使中美遏制严重冲突的风险。

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