Timothy R. Heath, China's New Governing Party Paradigm: Political Renewal and the Pursuit of National Rejuvenation

摘要

As China enters the so-called "new normal" with declining growth rates, and with the central government struggling to control the volatile financial market and to deflate property bubbles, there are predictions that the Chinese economy might crash in a not-so-distant future. For example, the Economist listed the economic "hard-landing" of China as one of the great risks in 2016. Given the linkage between the Chinese regime's legitimacy and economic performance, economic collapse will mostly likely have serious consequences for China's stability, and may even cause the collapse of the regime. Indeed, the thesis of "China collapse," once popular in the early 2000s, has become fashionable again, with a number of respectable authors and scholars suggesting that China is heading towards crisis, collapse, stagnation, or at least prolonged stasis and gradual decline.