Future-Biased Search: The Quest for the Ideal

摘要

Decision-makers with ideal candidates already in mind often extend search beyond optimal endpoints when searching for the best option among a sequential list of alternatives. Extended search is investigated here using three laboratory experiments; individuals in these tasks exhibit future-bias, delaying choice beyond normative benchmarks. Searchers' behavior is consistent with setting high thresholds based on a focal ideal outcome without full attention to its probability or the value of second-best alternatives; the behavior is partially debiased by manipulating which outcomes are in the searchers' focal set. Documenting future-bias in sequential search tasks offers new insights for understanding self-control and intertemporal choice by providing a situation in which thresholds may be set too high and myopic behavior does not prevail.