Climate change and the tick-borne disease, Theileriosis (East Coast fever) in sub-Saharan Africa

摘要

The impacts of climate change on the range of the tick-borne disease Theileriosis (East Coast fever (ECF)) in sub-Saharan Africa are predicted using a species distribution model and current and future climates simulated by the nested regional climate model DARLAM (Division of Atmospheric Limited Area Model). These results, based on the predicted distribution of the main tick vector species (Rhipicephalus appendiculatus) and its host, cattle, shows that the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape provinces of South Africa, Botswana, Malawi, Zambia and eastern DRC show increases in ECF suitability. Other areas in sub-Saharan Africa show different rates of range alteration. These range alterations are in response to the predicted general change in mean minimum, maximum temperature and rainfall in the months of January and July. The ECF sub-Saharan risk map provided is a necessary tool to complement existing traditional control methods. Understanding and mapping changes in space and time of this disease are a prerequisite to sustainable disease reduction since it is then possible for current and future disease control programs to be timely and directed at specific areas based on risk maps.