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Effective Approach to Characterization of Prediction Errors for Balloon Ascent Trajectories

机译:表征气球上升轨迹预测误差的有效方法

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摘要

To complywith the objectives of a balloon flight, it is usually necessary to predict,monitor and track the trajectory.nWithin the framework of the Unmanned Space Vehicles program, the Italian Aerospace Research Center developednseveralmethodologies useful to evaluate balloonmission feasibility, predict balloon trajectory, and assess trajectorynprediction errors. These methodologies are based on weather forecast data obtained using the Integrated ForecastnSystem model by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast and on the use of a proprietarynsimulation software for the prediction of flight trajectory and thermal behavior of zero-pressure balloons. In thisnpaper, we propose an effective approach for the characterization of trajectory prediction error based on statisticalncharacterization of the forecast error of the Integrated Forecast System atmospheric data (winds, temperature, andnpressure), statistical characterization of the error on gas mass due to inflation procedures, and analytical errornpropagation of these sources of uncertainties on the balloon’s velocity vector. The proposed approach allowsnestimating the actual trajectory dispersion once the predicted trajectory is computed using forecast data. Thenmethodology proposed improves the trajectory prediction methodology that was successfully used during the firstnDropped Transonic Flight Test accomplished by Italian Aerospace Research Center.
机译:为了符合气球飞行的目标,通常需要预测,监视和跟踪轨迹。n在无人飞行器计划的框架内,意大利航空航天研究中心开发了多种方法,可用于评估气球飞行可行性,预测气球轨迹和评估轨迹预测错误。这些方法是基于使用欧洲中距离天气预报中心的Integrated ForecastnSystem模型获得的天气预报数据,以及使用专有的模拟软件来预测零压力气球的飞行轨迹和热行为。在本文中,我们基于综合预报系统大气数据(风,温度和气压)的预报误差的统计特征,因充气程序引起的气体质量误差的统计特征,基于特征的轨迹特征,提出了一种表征轨迹预测误差的有效方法。以及这些误差源在气球速度矢量上的解析误差传播。一旦使用预测数据计算了预测的轨迹,建议的方法就可以估计实际的轨迹离散。然后提出的方法改进了轨迹预测方法,该方法在意大利航空研究中心完成的第一次跨音速飞行测试中成功使用。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Journal of Aircraft》 |2010年第4期|p.1331-1337|共7页
  • 作者单位

    Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali, 81043 Capua, Italy;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 23:06:16

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