Highway Design and Safety Consequences: A Case Study of Interstate Highway Vertical Grades

摘要

Vertical alignment, which includes vertical grades and lengths, is a critical aspect of highway design policy that influences safety. A full understanding of the effect of vertical grade and segment length on highway safety can help agencies to evaluate or adjust their design policies regarding vertical alignment design features (grade and length). For this reason, it is useful to assess the current relationships between design policy and safety performance. To address this task, this paper uses data from interstate segments to first establish the relationship between these design features and safety. Safety is expressed in terms of the three different levels of crash severity (fatal, injury, and property damage only). In its analysis, the paper departs from the traditional univariate models (where each crash severity is modeled separately) and instead uses a seemingly unrelated negative binomial (SUNB) technique, a multivariate model that duly accounts for the unobserved shared effects between the different levels of crash severity. In addition, the paper's models duly recognize and account for the holistic nature of the grade and tangent length effects: the effect of the sum (interaction) of the vertical grade and length is different from the sum of their individual effects. The paper investigates the relationships for rural and urban interstate highway segments. Against the background of the developed models, the paper evaluates current design policies (specifications on vertical alignment grade and length) for similar classes of highways at a number of countries and presents a set of nomograms that feature lines representing points of equal safety performance. These charts can be used by the highway agencies to evaluate and compare their current or possible future highway design policies.