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A Model to Forecast Aircraft Operations at General Aviation Airports

机译:通用航空机场飞机运行预测模型

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Forecasting the demand for aviation activities is an important task in economic planning. Traditionally, forecasting the demand for general aviation airports has been done using trend and ratio analyses. Both techniques ignore the changes in many external factors that influence aviation activities. This paper develops an econometric model that relates the number of aircraft operations at a general aviation airport to some socioeconomic characteristics and supply variables. The model was estimated using data for 82 airports in the state of Georgia. The results of estimating the model suggest that the demand is inelastic with respect to total employment. The results also show that presence of aviation related services such as avionics, charter flights, rental, repair and crop dusting are important factors in determining aviation activities. The demand seems to be responsive to the location of the county as a tourist/recreational destination.
机译:预测航空活动的需求是经济规划中的重要任务。传统上,使用趋势和比率分析来预测对通用航空机场的需求。两种技术都忽略了影响航空活动的许多外部因素的变化。本文开发了一种计量模型,该模型将通用航空机场的飞机运营数量与某些社会经济特征和供应变量相关联。该模型是使用佐治亚州82个机场的数据估算的。估计模型的结果表明,相对于总就业而言,需求没有弹性。结果还表明,与航空相关的服务(如航空电子,包机,租赁,维修和农作物除尘)的存在是确定航空活动的重要因素。需求似乎响应了该县作为旅游/休闲目的地的位置。

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