A comparative analysis of road safety across the provinces of Iran from 2005 to 2015

摘要

During the most recent decade, Iran has invested in road safety improvement programs and has experienced a reduction in road fatalities, with rates of improvement differing across provinces. Knowing which road safety investments are performing well across provinces is essential for wisely investing in future road safety improvements. This firstly requires identification of successful provinces. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to evaluate the relative performance of Iranian provinces in improving their safety, while accounting for a variety of factors that influence road safety outcomes. To achieve this aim, traffic fatality rates recorded in each province during 2005-2015 were analyzed. The analysis framework involved first estimating a panel data model to control for random variations as well as exogenous factors-in effect providing a safety performance function for provinces. Then, the "expected provincial safety performance" was compared to actual provincial safety performance, to identify "outlying" provinces with respect to safety performance. The results reveal that the fatality rates are positively associated with exposure as captured by per capita fuel consumption, and percentage of undivided two-lane, two-way rural roads, and negatively related to urban to rural population ratio, population density, and hospital beds per 100,000 residents. Moreover, the number of speed cameras per 100 km rural roads is associated with reduced fatality rates. A comparative assessment of provinces over the 11 year period revealed significant differences among the provinces in terms of safety performance in each year as well as safety improvement rates over time.