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THE ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL OUTPUT FOR ITALY: AN ENHANCED METHODOLOGY

机译:意大利潜在产出的估算:一种增强的方法

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In this paper, we identify some of the key sources of underestimation of Italy's potential growth within the EU commonly agreed methodology for the calculation of output gaps and potential oup-tut and we make two country-specific proposals to resolve or mitigate those empirical issues. Such changes concern: I) the "statistically optimal" calibration of the variances of the innovation processes of the NAWRU model through a Grid Search tool that we developed; 2) the estimation of the TFP cycle via the introduction of a labour hoarding index. We show that small adjustments would significantly improve the realism of potential growth estimates and yield a wider output gap, with a slower pace of closure. Such alternative estimates would have a substantial impact on the compliance of Italian public finances with the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact.
机译:在本文中,我们确定了在欧盟公认的用于计算产出缺口和潜在产出的通用方法中低估意大利潜在增长的一些关键原因,并提出了两个针对特定国家的建议来解决或缓解这些经验问题。这些变化涉及:I)通过我们开发的网格搜索工具对NAWRU模型的创新过程的方差进行“统计上最优”校准; 2)通过引入劳动ho积指数来估算全要素生产率周期。我们表明,小幅调整将大大改善潜在增长估计的真实性,并产生更大的产出缺口,但关闭速度较慢。这种替代估计将对意大利公共财政对《稳定与增长公约》的要求的遵守产生重大影响。

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