A model on cash flow forecasting and early warning for multi-project programmes: application to the Operational Programme for the Information Society in Greece

摘要

One of the most important programmes of the 3rd Community Support Framework for Greece is the Operational Programme for the Information Society (OPIS), which deals with the promotion of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) solutions in Greek society. Cash flow forecasting is essential in OPIS management as there are specific yearly commitments imposed by the European Commission and thus an efficient planning is required. In this study, a model on cash flow forecasting is developed and applied in order to improve the OPIS management. The model is based on a bottom-up approach starting from the level of a single contract towards the level of the entire programme. Each contract's cash flow is approximated with an appropriate S-curve that expresses its cumulative expenses. The results can be aggregated in all intermediate levels (project, measure, etc.), as well as for different groups of interest (implementation body, ministry, etc.). The model is also used as an early warning system in order to secure the proper execution of the programme and prevent from any loss of funds, due to delays. The first results of the model show that it can be a useful tool to the OPIS's administration not only for forecasting but also for monitoring and control.