Model maturity towards modeling and simulation: Concepts, index system framework and evaluation method

摘要

Simulation has become an essential way and sometimes the only way to study complex systems (e.g., system of systems, SoS). Simulation is the model-based activity. How to build a high-quality model is the first consideration in simulation. Fidelity and credibility are the two mostly used metrics to evaluate the quality of a model. However, the definitions and evaluation methods of fidelity and credibility vary from one research to another and it's hard to evaluate the metrics precisely. More importantly, the evolution process of a model in use cannot be directly reflected by the two metrics. Therefore, this paper introduces the model maturity to track the status of a model during its life cycle, especially in the use and management phases, which will be an important supplement to the quality evaluation system of models. The concept of model maturity is given and a framework of index system for model maturity evaluation is established. Then, a hierarchical evaluation method based on qualitative and quantitative analysis (HEQQ) for model maturity is proposed. Finally, a case study is used to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.